Everybody’s ideas are with Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa following yet one more concussion sustained Thursday towards the Buffalo Payments. As all of us anxiously await phrase about his well being, on a far much less severe entrance, fantasy managers with rostered Dolphins stars like Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle are additionally contemplating easy methods to cope ought to Tua miss time. One small silver lining for them is that the fantasy manufacturing of these gamers in Tua’s potential absence might not be as unhealthy as one may assume.
As The Athletic’s Brandon Funston factors out, in 13 video games with Tua beneath middle within the 2022 season, Hill averaged 21.4 PPR factors. In 4 video games with Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson, Hill averaged 15.7. It’s a major dip — nearly a six-point distinction — however that 15.7 points-per-game mark would have made him a Prime 10 huge receiver in 2022.
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Former gamers name for Tagovailoa to retire
As for Jaylen Waddle, in 13 video games with Tua, he averaged 16.8 PPR factors. Within the 4 video games with Bridgewater and Thompson, he averaged 10.7. Once more, we’re a couple of six-point drop, but it surely represents a couple of 36% discount in fantasy worth in comparison with a roughly 27% drop in Hill’s manufacturing. In 2022, Waddle’s 10.7 PPR factors mark would have put him within the backend of the WR3 class.
Luckily for the Dolphins, the upcoming schedule suggests they need to have the ability to run the ball successfully. The Dolphins don’t have an unfavorable rush protection matchup (outlined as red-rated in my projection system’s terminology) till Week 10. Additionally they have three green-rated rush protection matchups within the subsequent 5 video games (Miami is on a bye in Week 6). This is without doubt one of the most favorable rush protection schedules within the first half of the season, so it augurs effectively for a shift to the bottom recreation.
The truth that Mike McDaniel is without doubt one of the most artistic run-play callers within the league (one thing he realized because the run recreation coordinator whereas working for Kyle Shanahan) may also ought to fantasy managers with Miami working backs.
This play-calling expertise reveals up within the superior metrics. Over the previous two years (2022 and 2023) the Dolphins rank third in offensive rush EPA success (43.4 p.c) on performs the place the opposing crew had 8+ defenders within the deal with field. This shouldn’t come as a shock, as McDaniel needed to create creative rush play calls in San Francisco to beat this kind of factor on a regular basis. The 49ers had the third-highest variety of rushes with 8+ defenders within the field and nonetheless ranked seventh in offensive EPA rush success (40.8 p.c) in that state of affairs throughout his tenure as run recreation/offensive coordinator (2017-2021).
Add this up and it means that Achane, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Jaylen Wright can nonetheless produce high quality fantasy level totals even when Thompson is the Dolphins’ quarterback.
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Tua Tagovailoa suffers concussion on collision with Damar Hamlin
(Picture of Tyreek Hill: Carmen Mandato/Getty Photos)
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